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28 November 2024

Day 1009 War in Ukraine

Demonstrators in Tbilisi, Georgia, still believe the election was stolen and that a majority wants to conduct a Maidan revolution, to seize power and to turn against Russia. Tens of thousands of protesters have gathered in multiple cities.

Massive attack on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure. Energy providers have to shut down until damage is fixed. This was the 11th large-scale attack this year.

Zelenskyy concludes Putin wants to escalate before Trump takes office. Putin brags about the Oreshnik missile, which hits with temperature of 4k degrees, turning everything under it to dust. Experts believe Putin is exaggerating, but it’s part of a psyop, trying to freak out Europeans.

Putin has a deeply paranoid point of view towards the West. He feels Ukraine is an artificial construct put together by Lenin. “There is a sense in Moscow that the West has become too comfortable with the war…” To those who know Russia best, their answer is “Keep calm and carry on.”

German intelligence chief suggests NATO invoke Article 5, to go to war in answer to Russia’s provocations.

It is a category error to think we can negotiate peace at this point. Russia began this in 2007 and has mostly pursued it in non-kinetic ways, but war is definitely Russia’s objective.

The reason the US authorized long-range missile launches is “that US officials have concluded that Putin’s nuclear threats were just hollow saber rattling.”

Lots of weaponized pushback from Ukrainian forces.

Ukrainians still had their Thanksgiving feasts!

$5m Russian radar destroyed.

Oil refinery hit.

https://balloon-juice.com/2024/11/28/war-for-ukraine-day-1009-russia-attacks-ukraines-energy-infrastructure-in-the-small-hours-of-the-night/

 

Day 1007 War in Ukraine

 


Yeah, imagine people being so gullible today! Sigh!

Russia launches a staggering 188 drones. Not many got through to their targets, but the Ukrainian air defense forces had to work very hard.

Zelenskyy cites the nearly 200 drones and missiles as proof that Russia isn’t interested in peace.

Biden is working to strengthen Ukraine, but Trump might very well push them to accept a bad deal from Russia.

Russia’s testing the US and Europe with attacks on defense companies to see how far it can go. Those companies have been warned to increase their security. “Putin considers that he is at war with the West.”

Unidentified drones have flown over three U.S. Air Force bases in the U.K. in the past week

Very interesting. British have some cool anti-drone systems.

Europe reacting to Trump’s election to continue helping Ukraine.

Good! Germany will get air defense systems to Ukraine before Christmas!

Interview with Andrii Biletskyi, the commander of the Third Assault Brigade. The motivation of Ukrainian troops is fine, but they could use more people and equipment. Very lengthy interview, video with subtitles supplied.

Interesting! Ir strike hits building from the side instead of falling straight down.

Five unarmed Ukrainian soldiers captured and executed.

https://balloon-juice.com/2024/11/26/war-for-ukraine-day-1007-russia-throws-188-drones-4-iskanders-at-ukraine/

17 November 2024

Day 998 War in Ukraine


Nataliia Hrabarchuk left her job as a preschool teacher to become an anti-aircraft gunner. She “downed a Russian cruise missile on her first attempt.”

Russia launches a very broad, deep and wide assault of drones and missiles that it takes an enormous amount of space to document it all. “120 missiles and 90 attack drones. “ F-16 jets were used to repel some of the missiles.

NY Times reports that Ukraine can now use ATACMS missiles to strike targets in Russia. Ukraine can at first use the missiles in Kursk province, but that might be expanded later.

Many Ukrainians welcome having permission to strike Russian targets, but feel that permission should have been given over a year ago. Ukraine doesn’t have enough missiles to hit all the worthwhile targets in Kursk. Our blogger is less than impressed.

Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk said that Russia’s latest attack against Ukraine proved the ineffectiveness of telephone diplomacy.

Moldova complains that their airspace was violated.

A European coommenter blames German Chancellor Scholz’s phone call to Putin and Trump’s criticism of Zelenskyy for the massive aerial assault as both demonstrated weakness. Strength doesn’t provoke Putin. Weakness does.

Russian aerial assault was aimed at Ukraine’s energy grid. The attack was aimed at the “cities of Kropyvnytskyi, Rivne, Ivano-Frankivsk, Cherkasy, Dnipro, Vinnytsia, Kryvyi Rih, Odesa, Zaporizhzhia, as well as in the Khmelnytskyi and Volyn oblasts.”

Counting up the damage to civilians as a result of the mass aerial assault. The missiles and drones were “targeting not for victory but for deprivation – aiming to plunge the nation into darkness and cold.”

https://balloon-juice.com/2024/11/17/war-for-ukraine-day-998-sumy-burns/

13 November 2024

Day 994 War in Ukraine

 

Heartbreaking! Ukrainian children rush to school in the bomb shelter as air raid sirens sound!

Kyiv has denied that it seeks nuclear weapons and with the nuclear materials available to it, it could only build a very small bomb anyway. Ukraine’s Foreign ministry says that it’s committed to the Non-Proliferation Treaty. All that being said, it would be quite possible for Ukraine to obtain nukes if Trump seriously threatened to stop funding Ukraine’s war against Russia’s war of aggression.

Biden Administration would like to see additional funding for Ukraine in 2025 budget. It will increase funding in the meantime.

Tulsi Gabbard is being nominated for director of National Intelligence. NATO countries are likely to stop sharing intelligence with the US if she takes that position.

Ukraine will get 6th German air defense system.

Candidates for German Chancellor differ on getting long-range Taurus missiles to Ukraine.

Pretty good score against Russian aerial attack, but some got through.

Molniya drones hitting in Kharkiv.

Some attacking Russians near Kupiansk violated laws of war by wearing Ukrainian uniforms.

Russian counter-offensive near Kursk doing poorly, suffering heavy losses. Ukraine takes out “1,950 personnel and 104 destroyed armored vehicles” in a single day.

Pion is Soviet-era self-propelled 203 mm cannon (18 kg of explosive) that Ukraine is using.

Explosion kills Russian officers.

https://balloon-juice.com/2024/11/13/war-for-ukraine-day-994-a-brief-wednesday-night-update/

10 November 2024

Day 990 War in Ukraine


Press exploring a city that embodies resilience.

Zelenskyy spoke with Trump and was pleased, but an aide of Trump’s warned that Crimea is los to Ukraine forever. So the situation is as clear as mud.

Zelenskyy reports that Ukraine’s military factories are in good financial shape. He wonders why Europe has plenty of air defense systems sitting idle, while Ukraine could really use some of those.

Estonia, at least, is offering more air defense.

Biden Administration trying to get $7 billion worth of weapons out the door to Ukraine prior to the inauguration. They’re concerned that many of these weapons will still be en route when Trump takes office, but somehow many more weapons were supposed to have been delivered than were ever actually delivered.

Russia will be able to produce 30% more artillery shells than all EU member states combined next year

Another Ukrainian POW executed.

Would it actually help Ukraine to get restrictions on use of ATACMS lifted? Tatarigami’s Frontillegence has concluded that Russia has move strategic assets back from the front lines, but that many assets remain within range.

Ukrainians have recovered a downed, but intact, Russian Shahed drone with a thermobaric warhead.

Russian oil refineries in Saratov hit.

Schools in the Voronezh region of Russia received a prank demand that they make tinfoil hats to protect against NATO signals. Some complied.

https://balloon-juice.com/2024/11/09/war-for-ukraine-day-990-mixed-signals/


08 November 2024

Day 988 War in Ukraine

 

Trump wants a quick, simple answer to war in Ukraine. Not gonna happen.

Kyiv was placed under a nine-hour drone assault. Now the Shahed drones are equipped with thermobaric warheads. Again, these drones are hitting civilians areas of the city.

Trump wants to delay Ukraine’s entry into NATO by 20 years. In return, Ukraine would continue to be armed. Not sure how the war gets solved “in 24 hours” then. Of course, that means freezing the current front lines, which is no solution at all. Neither side agrees with Trump’s idea of peace in 24 hours.

Tatarigami adds that Europe would have to do the heavy lifting of arming Ukraine AND to increase aid well beyond what it is. The US has great leverage over Russia, but must be willing to use it and it’s clear Trump won’t.

Russia opposed Trump’s plan for peace in Ukraine. Russia seeks “control over the government in UA, its military and defense industrial capabilities,” in other words, Ukraine’s surrender.

Good! “The U.S. will send Ukraine the full $6 billion” that’s in the pipeline before Inauguration Day.

There’s absolutely NO reason to presume that Trump has ANY desire to aid Ukraine.

A 12-story residential building in Kharkiv is bombed.

Two gas pipelines in Odesa blown up. Russians “targeting port infrastructure and damaging several civilian vessels.”

Russian two-star general killed.

Dagestan is used for Iran to get drones to Russia. Ukraine is hitting that area with drones.

https://balloon-juice.com/2024/11/07/war-for-ukraine-day-988-a-brief-thursday-night-update/

02 November 2024

Day 983 War in Ukraine


 

Alexander Malkevich has been extremely active in Russian propaganda and was in Tblisi, the Capitol of Georgia. Looking as though Georgia will follow Belarus in becoming a Russian satellite.

Russia sends Shahed drone against Kyiv for six hours! Total number of Shaheds attacking Kyiv per day has averaged over 60 a day.

Russia stepping up its game against US election with 21 fake videos. Moldova also getting lots of election interference.

US says that if North Koreans engage in combat, they become legitimate military targets. Hard to see what the alternative would be. Is Russia weak because it employs North Korean troops or is it simply solving a problem? Russia is actually advancing in Ukraine.

The fellow running the Kyiv School of Economics feels the US has ben extremely weak in supporting Ukraine. Ukraine can’t strike North Korean troops even though they know where they are, but Israel has no restrictions. Russian aerial attacks on cities have drawn no response from US.

US could show leadership on admitting Ukraine into NATO.

Is the US perhaps waiting until after the election so as not to give Trump an issue? Or does the Biden Administration simply have hubris?

Apparently a poison gassing of Ukrainian troops in Brussels, Belgium. Blogger: "We have a term for these types of things: acts of war.”

Russian attack of 22 units (tanks, infantry fighting vehicles, 120 infantry) stopped

Russia loses another air defense system to Ukrainian heavy night bomber drone.

Russia attacks on 70km wide front. Ukrainian forces might end up being enveloped.

Now Kharkiv residents have to worry about underwater mines as well.

https://balloon-juice.com/2024/11/02/war-for-ukraine-day-983-shaheds-swarm-kyiv/

01 November 2024

Day 982 War in Ukraine


North Korean troops are clearly intended for direct combat roles.

Russia launched 2,023 UAVs in October. Ukraine knocked down a really large chunk of them, but a lot got through. Probably about 170k foreign components. Sanctions aren’t nearly tight enough.

Zelenskyy comments on North Korean soldiers that aren’t far from Ukraine. He’s getting really annoyed at his inability to use long-range missiles.

Ukrainian Minister of Defense Umerov knows full well that Ukraine is only getting 10% of what the US has promised, but he has to keep up the pretense. Zelenskyy blames “bureaucracy and logistics.”

The US announced a new package today, which is good. Money for weapons for Ukraine is certainly being spent.

Poland constructing an 700km long Eastern wall, fortifications against Belarus/Russia.

It is possible that the Russian Armed Forces will achieve a local breakthrough in the Pokrovsk, Kurakhovo or Vuhledar areas this year.

South Korea is seriously considering aiding Ukraine. “But the prospect of directly supplying arms to Ukraine has been fiercely opposed by South Korea’s leftwing opposition, which holds a majority in parliament…”

Federal agencies ODNI, FBI and CISA release statement on Russian interference in US election.

Kharkiv is getting hit every day now.

https://balloon-juice.com/2024/11/01/war-for-ukraine-day-982-russia-double-tap-strikes-kharkiv-attacks-odesa-drone-strikes-sumy/