Day 1481 War in Ukraine

 Actor Sean Penn won an Oscar, but chose to meet with Zelenskyy instead.

Belgium's a traitor to the cause of democracy and independence.

Zelenskyy does an interview with Israelis.

Nino Nadiradze, prominent Georgian Dream supporter, feels unsafe in public and eats in private.

“the Georgian Dream no longer issues student visas to people enrolled in universities that are critical to the regime”

Georgian Opposition Alliance agrees on a range of actions.

Europe will not follow US lead and will maintain sanctions on Russia.

Ukrainians conducted a war game where they used naval drones. Ukraine won all five engagements.

Why is Orban unpopular? He's spent his entire 15 years in office trying to set Hungarians against each other and has accomplished nothing useful for Hungary.

Trump claims there's a list of countries that will help the US in the Strait of Hormuz. Nope. No such list exists. No one from Trump's “Board of Peace” will join a coalition to open up the Strait.

Very interesting. “Iran is letting tankers with oil bound for China through the strait.“

Trump is correct that people live under wartime conditions, but no, they don't “get used to it.”

The US cut off aid to Ukraine a year ago.

“Ukrainian innovations in drone warfare are significantly weakening Russian frontline logistics.”

Chess master Gary Kasparov thinks Ukraine is doing something marvelous.

Russia may have used an AI-guided drone.

Lots of damage and destruction done to Ukrainian people, buildings and vehicles.

Russian air defense systems struck. Concentration of Russian troops also struck.

In Moscow, mobile phone networks are down, air travel is disrupted, even landlines are partially cut off.

Russian oil depot blown up.

https://balloon-juice.com/2026/03/16/war-for-ukraine-day-1481-et-tu-belgique/

Day 1480 War in Ukraine

 “We got through an extremely difficult winter thanks to you. Despite the attacks and the freezing cold, the housing and utilities system held up. Over 1,000 buildings were damaged in the city during the war, and you were the ones working on every single one of them.“

Fiona Hill was in the government as a Russia expert. Trump has no use for experts, so she's here on a BBC interview.

The Ukrainian counter-offensive seems to have defeated the Russian offensive. Ukraine is working hard to eliminate as many Russian soldiers as possible.

Georgian Dream has promised to comply with Russian sanctions. They've proven unreliable in the past. Georgian public is convinced their strategy Is beginning to pay off.

Georgia now has more political prisoners than Russia.

The faction that wants a dialogue with the Georgian Dream Party is fighting with the larger group of protesters who are making demands of the government.

Japan is both getting Ukrainian drones and supplying Patriot missiles to the US.

Russia rejects having Europeans be part of peace negotiations.

Hungarian opposition demonstrates their numbers in demonstration.

Hungary is opposed to Ukraine joining the EU, which gives Ukraine zero motivation to help Orban or his party.

Moldova's water supply is threatened by Russia's attack on Ukraine.

Trump's not sure that Russia is helping Iran target Americans. Iran's Foreign Minister says yes, Russia is helping them.

Zelenskyy makes it clear that Trump has not thanked Ukraine for helping the US with anti-drone technology.

Trump tries to assemble an alliance with NATO through threats. He also failed to show gratitude for NATO sacrifices made in Iraq and Afghanistan.

A Ukrainian film fails to even gain the notice of the Oscars.

Russian offensive disrupted.

Russia conducting big offensive in Zaporizhzhia.

Ukraine launched drone attack against Moscow region that lasted for over 24 hours.

https://balloon-juice.com/2026/03/15/war-for-ukraine-day-1480-the-cost/

Day 1478 War in Ukraine

“Pani Natalia, 70 evacuated her husband in a wheelchair from the killzone. They walked 13km (!)” until they were picked up by Ukrainian troops.

Is the US about to send a Marine force to the Strait of Hormuz to open up shipping there or dos the Navy have to await the Carrier Group Abraham Lincoln? Because really, unless the carrier group is there, we don't have anywhere near the necessary force to do much of anything.

Seven more children retrieved from “temporarily occupied territory.

Trump claims, inaccurately, that the US is ahead of Ukraine in drone technology.

Zelenskyy meets with the French President Macron.

A Georgian protester plays Bell Ciao on her violin.

Protester bags are being searched for tents.

Hungary thinks it's terribly unfair that they're denied cheap Russian oil. Under Trump's relaxation of sanctions, Russia can send more oil overseas, but that doesn't mean oil can be sent over land.

EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas assesses (correctly) that Trump is trying to divide Europe.

Canada will continue to sanction Russian oil.

Germany planning big increase in artillery shell production. As they are now more experienced, Ukrainian soldiers will train German soldiers.

G7 disagrees with Trump over Russian oil sanctions.

Treasury Secretary Bessent says it's unfortunate that Russia is benefiting from relaxation of sanctions. Russia is getting $150 million a day thanks to Trump.

Russia sends 125 drones a day, Ukraine responds with 202. Most on both sides are cheap decoys.

Piece on Ukraine selling drones to Saudi Arabia.

Assassination attempt foiled for commander of Ukraine's 3^rd Army Corps.

Russian ammunition warehouse blown up.

Russians have been trying REALY hard to destroy a Ukrainian oil refinery.

Russian air defense systems, oil refineries and oil terminals blown up.

https://balloon-juice.com/2026/03/13/war-for-ukraine-day-1478-are-the-best-drones-in-the-world-in-the-room-with-us-now/

 

A Forever War?

 Ben Shapiro is puzzled by the assertion that the US is now engaged in a “Forever War” when the Iran War is only a few week old. The Iraq War that began in 2003 was supposed to have ended with fall of Baghdad, but by early 2005, it was clear that the guerrilla war that began a few months afterwards was going to be extremely hard to put down in fact it never was and the US pulled out at the end of 2011. The younger George Bush had a clear goal, for Iraq to be a peaceful colony. Trump's goals? Well, he announced that he wouldn't settle for anything less than “unconditional surrender,” which hardly encourages Iranians to surrender peacefully. We therefore have no idea when Trump will be satisfied that he's achieved his objectives.

Amazingly, Trump's people hadn't even accounted for Iran's determination to close the Strait of Hormuz, a very easily predictable move for Iran to have made. Iran is certainly under the impression that distracting the American people from the Epstein Files is a major Trump goal. I agree that for Trump to help out his good buddy Putin by cranking up the price of oil is a major motivator for Trump.

The end of the Iran War is by no means clear because the terms that Trump will settle for are by no means clear.

Why did Trump initiate the current war with Iran?

In the war with Iran, DNI Gabbard is conspicuous by her absence. As the Director of National Intelligence, she should be at the center of discussions!  Secretary of State Rubio indignantly insists that "Tulsi has done a fantastic job and is a respected member of the President’s national security team..." But although she was present in the Situation Room  

during the launch of “Operation Epic Fury,” she was not at Mar-a-Lago with the commander in chief.

The piece goes on to document Gabbard's opposition to a possible invasion of Iran to her absence and silence since the bombing of that country began. 

Press Secretary Leavitt answered questions during a press briefing. Note that at no point during that briefing did she mention DNI Gabbard specifically or anything our intelligence agencies more generally might have provided to the President so that Trump could have made an informed decision. Trump appears to have relied entirely on Envoy Witkoff, a real estate guy with no background in intelligence or military affairs or diplomacy.  

The blogger here spends the first several paragraphs of this piece detailing just how Witkoff and his partner Jared Kushner (Trump's son-in-law) reached the conclusion that Iran was close to deploying a nuclear bomb. 

Witkoff and Kushner did not bring technical experts from the U.S. to sit in on their talks in Geneva 

Of past regimes, Trump's leadership team most closely resembles that of Mussolini's government over Italy in the 30s and 40s. Unfortunately

After years in power, surrounded by toadies and yes-men, Mussolini began to believe his own rhetoric...

Which sadly, brings us to today. 

Update: And yes, 

A solid majority of Americans believe that Trump started the war with Iran in part to distract from the Epstein file scandal that he can't dig himself out of.

Day 1475 War in Ukraine

 A Bofors 40mm gun (developed in 1922) is highly useful against Shahed drones.

Envoy Witkoff believes we can take the Russians at their word. Witkoff has made a enormous amount of money by doing business with Russian oligarchs. Th Trump negotiators appear to have believed, erroneously, that an Iranian reactor was capable of producing a bomb. It wasn't. The Iranians wanted to continue using uranium that was 20% enriched in their reactor. It isn't clear that Witkoff and Kushner understood what he Iranians were doing or suggesting.

The Trump Administration (blogger calls them “Team Clown Shoes”) were warned by Ukrainians about Iranians possibly using drones in the Persian Gulf. Team Trump dismissed the idea. After an Iranian drone was seen above a US military base, the US then requested assistance. Oops!

Georgia's Prime Minister congratulates “Mojtaba Khamenei on his appointment as Iran’s Supreme Leader.”

Georgia's port of Kulevi removed from EU sanctions regime even though they appear to play a role in sanctions evasions. "Today, when they faced the actual possibility of sanctions, the Georgian Dream suddenly made a promise to no longer evade Russia sanctions”

“Hungary’s Transport Minister openly admits Hungary stole $80 million belonging to Ukraine and plans to use it as leverage to restore the Druzhba oil pipeline”

Europe is going to give Ukraine 35 Patriot missiles.

Germany opposed easing sanctions on Russian oil.

Trump mentions that they now have low-cost drone interceptors without mentioning WHAT COUNTRY they're from!

“The deportation and forcible transfer of Ukrainian children to Russia constitutes a crime against humanity and a war crime, the UN has said”

More Ukrainian apartment buildings bombed.

Putin says Donetsk is being rebuilt. Short film shows before and after pictures. No, Donetsk is still in very bad shape.

“Almost the entire territory of Dnipropetrovsk region has already been liberated from the Russians.”

Internet in Moscow has been disabled.

Lots of Russian stuff blowing up.

https://balloon-juice.com/2026/03/10/war-for-ukraine-day-1475-if-you-look-around-the-table-cant-tell-who-the-mark-is-youre-the-mark/

Day 1471 War in Ukraine

 Mother gets news that her son, who has been in Russian captivity for three years, is home!

Did the US dig old anti-aircraft systems out of storage to oppose Iran? Nah, not the way the US fights.

“Russia is providing Iran with targeting information to attack American forces in the Middle East ...” In the video where Trump is asked about this, he shows that he REALLY doesn't want to talk about that.

Secretary of Defense Hegseth hilariously tells us that Trump has relationships with other world leaders so that he's fully aware of what's going on. I agree with the blogger. That sounds like a fictional representation rather than the real person.

A Georgian researcher has written about Iran's influence on Georgia. “Calls to prosecute researchers over exposing Iran ties continues.”

Hungary is taking Ukrainian POWs hostage and cash and vehicles from Ukrainian banks. They display Ukrainian bank notes as though they were suspicious. All Ukrainian personnel were eventually returned.

Ukrainian Foreign Minister calls Hungarian actions that of a criminal gang.

Putin to try and rig Hungary's election so that Orban wins reelection.

EU is preparing financial package, Ukraine says it needs 2k missiles for air defense systems per year. EU will allocate 60 billion Euros per year for missile, drones and 155mm artillery shells.

Russia is building up forces on Lithuanian border. They could be ready to attack in six years.

US relieves India by permitting them to buy Russian oil. Somehow have the feeling that that was their FIRST idea, rather than a decision they reached after looking at all the alternatives.

EU is insisting that Ukraine unblock the Druzhba pipeline, a pipeline that finances Russia's war against Ukraine.

Lots of Russian stuff blowing up.

Damage to Odesa and Kharkiv and the Dnister Hydroelectric Power Plant.

Russia kidnaps 19 Ukrainians. Ukraine demands their return.

https://balloon-juice.com/2026/03/06/war-for-ukraine-day-1471-russia-russia-russia/

Day 1462 War in Ukraine

 “The company’s main activity is the production of chemical products used by the Russian military-industrial complex.”

One of Putin' s objectives in his war on Ukraine was to prevent their acquiring long-range weapons. Ukrainian home-produced Flamingo cruise missiles just hit a target 1k km from their front line.

OTD in 1921, the Soviet Union signed a peace treaty with Georgia and violated it in less than a year. European NATO members agree that Putin can veto having them in Ukraine to ensure peace. There's about a 100% chance he'll do so.

Joint Ukrainian-British defense plant began operating in Britain.

“Trump has no idea what Putin really wants.” It's not like Trump has any excuse as Putin's goals have been clear since the full-scale war started four years ago. According to the blogger, Trump “has no idea what the actual causes of the war are.”

Ukraine was prioritizing hitting oil refineries. Now that that's more or less under control, they're hitting industrial targets. Back during World War II, the US and Britain could simply unload tons of bombs on a target and rest assured it was destroyed. Flamingos have a much smaller warhead, so they need to be very precise in what they hit.

Denys “Redis” Prokopenko makes the rank of Brigadier General (usually, generals and admirals are at least 50 year old).

“Epicenter mall is on fire in Zaporizhzhia after russian attack “

More Russian anti-aircraft systems blown up.

One out of every 25 Russian men is a casualty of the war in Ukraine, either wounded enough to be out of the fight or dead.

https://balloon-juice.com/2026/02/25/war-for-ukraine-day-1462-year-5/