Day 1015 War in Ukraine

Great weather with which to move around in Kherson as drones can’t hunt people during bad weather.

Russia launched 2,576 kamikaze Shahed drones against Ukraine in November. Putin wants to vastly increase the number of drones that Russia produces. As drones are inexpensive, Ukraine has developed inexpensive ways to fight them. “Using both mobile fire groups and EW, Borsari says that only around 5% of the drones” make it through to Ukrainian targets.

“House Speaker rejects Biden's request for additional $24 billion in Ukraine aid.” $2 billion of that would have gone to restocking US weapons so that we could give older weapons to Ukraine.

How does Trump plan to end the war in Ukraine? Getting Ukraine into NATO is “off the table.” Pressure on Zelenskyy seems very highly likely. People are highly skeptical as to how Russia can be pressured.

US insists that Ukraine draft more people. Blogger blasts this as hypocritical.

Russia used a missile on Dnipro that’s hypersonic and is capable of using nuclear warheads. It was a great propaganda success.

Tibilisi demonstrations – seventh night in a row. Calls for national strikes. Police going after opposition figures.

Russia assembling 300 boats to try and launch an amphibious assault on Kherson.

Russia trying to empty out Kherson using drones to attack civilians. Kherson civilians move around at night and during bad weather. Civilian casualty figures are horrible. Russians enjoy posting videos of drone attacks. The drones “have ranges up to 15km, fly at low altitudes and zip around at speeds of more than 100km per hour, making them difficult to track and take down.”

https://balloon-juice.com/2024/12/04/war-for-ukraine-day-1015-a-brief-wednesday-night-update/

 

Neighborhood meeting on proposed 76ers arena

The meeting concerning the proposed 76ers arena was held in a neighborhood church. Lack of parking meant it pretty much just got a local crowd of people who had walked to the meeting. Mayor Cherelle Parker played a very active role in presenting information and answering questions. Very lengthy meeting. I got there around 5:30pm, left after 8:00 and there were still many questioners left. A great deal of time, maybe an hour & a half, was taken up by the city administrations presentation. At one point during the presentation, an audience member made an accusation and the administration took about five minutes to explain that everyone would get their turn and that they would stay as long as necessary to answer everyone’s questions.

During the questioning, a member of a community group complained that the mayor had never met with her group. Parker went through a list of the groups that she had met with and suggested that somehow, the questioners group had been inadvertently left off the list. One of the problems that the questioners had was that they carried on at great length, were able to ask just one question and weren’t allowed any follow-ups. This was especially aggravating to one fellow who got an answer he didn’t like, tried to clarify his question and was told that he had used up his one question.

My recommendation is that questioners write their questions down beforehand, not so much to get every point in, but to make sure that their questions are as concise and as to-the-point as possible. Yes, it would be nice to have follow-ups. Perhaps a group could arrange for member #1 to ask a question, then for member #2 to say “Y’know, a previous audience member asked (---) and I’d just like to get a clarification about your answer…”

The city administration tried very hard to make the case that the area in which the arena would be built really needed the economic boost and that as the area was at the center of city traffic and as games would end after the regular traffic had departed anyway, that it was a good investment.

Day 1009 War in Ukraine

Demonstrators in Tbilisi, Georgia, still believe the election was stolen and that a majority wants to conduct a Maidan revolution, to seize power and to turn against Russia. Tens of thousands of protesters have gathered in multiple cities.

Massive attack on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure. Energy providers have to shut down until damage is fixed. This was the 11^th large-scale attack this year.

Zelenskyy concludes Putin wants to escalate before Trump takes office. Putin brags about the Oreshnik missile, which hits with temperature of 4k degrees, turning everything under it to dust. Experts believe Putin is exaggerating, but it’s part of a psyop, trying to freak out Europeans.

Putin has a deeply paranoid point of view towards the West. He feels Ukraine is an artificial construct put together by Lenin. “There is a sense in Moscow that the West has become too comfortable with the war…” To those who know Russia best, their answer is “Keep calm and carry on.”

German intelligence chief suggests NATO invoke Article 5, to go to war in answer to Russia’s provocations.

It is a category error to think we can negotiate peace at this point. Russia began this in 2007 and has mostly pursued it in non-kinetic ways, but war is definitely Russia’s objective.

The reason the US authorized long-range missile launches is “that US officials have concluded that Putin’s nuclear threats were just hollow saber rattling.”

Lots of weaponized pushback from Ukrainian forces.

Ukrainians still had their Thanksgiving feasts!

$5m Russian radar destroyed.

Oil refinery hit.

https://balloon-juice.com/2024/11/28/war-for-ukraine-day-1009-russia-attacks-ukraines-energy-infrastructure-in-the-small-hours-of-the-night/

 

Day 1007 War in Ukraine

 

Yeah, imagine people being so gullible today! Sigh!

Russia launches a staggering 188 drones. Not many got through to their targets, but the Ukrainian air defense forces had to work very hard.

Zelenskyy cites the nearly 200 drones and missiles as proof that Russia isn’t interested in peace.

Biden is working to strengthen Ukraine, but Trump might very well push them to accept a bad deal from Russia.

Russia’s testing the US and Europe with attacks on defense companies to see how far it can go. Those companies have been warned to increase their security. “Putin considers that he is at war with the West.”

Unidentified drones have flown over three U.S. Air Force bases in the U.K. in the past week

Very interesting. British have some cool anti-drone systems.

Europe reacting to Trump’s election to continue helping Ukraine.

Good! Germany will get air defense systems to Ukraine before Christmas!

Interview with Andrii Biletskyi, the commander of the Third Assault Brigade. The motivation of Ukrainian troops is fine, but they could use more people and equipment. Very lengthy interview, video with subtitles supplied.

Interesting! Ir strike hits building from the side instead of falling straight down.

Five unarmed Ukrainian soldiers captured and executed.

https://balloon-juice.com/2024/11/26/war-for-ukraine-day-1007-russia-throws-188-drones-4-iskanders-at-ukraine/

Day 998 War in Ukraine

Nataliia Hrabarchuk left her job as a preschool teacher to become an anti-aircraft gunner. She “downed a Russian cruise missile on her first attempt.”

Russia launches a very broad, deep and wide assault of drones and missiles that it takes an enormous amount of space to document it all. “120 missiles and 90 attack drones. “ F-16 jets were used to repel some of the missiles.

NY Times reports that Ukraine can now use ATACMS missiles to strike targets in Russia. Ukraine can at first use the missiles in Kursk province, but that might be expanded later.

Many Ukrainians welcome having permission to strike Russian targets, but feel that permission should have been given over a year ago. Ukraine doesn’t have enough missiles to hit all the worthwhile targets in Kursk. Our blogger is less than impressed.

Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk said that Russia’s latest attack against Ukraine proved the ineffectiveness of telephone diplomacy.

Moldova complains that their airspace was violated.

A European coommenter blames German Chancellor Scholz’s phone call to Putin and Trump’s criticism of Zelenskyy for the massive aerial assault as both demonstrated weakness. Strength doesn’t provoke Putin. Weakness does.

Russian aerial assault was aimed at Ukraine’s energy grid. The attack was aimed at the “cities of Kropyvnytskyi, Rivne, Ivano-Frankivsk, Cherkasy, Dnipro, Vinnytsia, Kryvyi Rih, Odesa, Zaporizhzhia, as well as in the Khmelnytskyi and Volyn oblasts.”

Counting up the damage to civilians as a result of the mass aerial assault. The missiles and drones were “targeting not for victory but for deprivation – aiming to plunge the nation into darkness and cold.”

https://balloon-juice.com/2024/11/17/war-for-ukraine-day-998-sumy-burns/

Day 994 War in Ukraine

 

Heartbreaking! Ukrainian children rush to school in the bomb shelter as air raid sirens sound!

Kyiv has denied that it seeks nuclear weapons and with the nuclear materials available to it, it could only build a very small bomb anyway. Ukraine’s Foreign ministry says that it’s committed to the Non-Proliferation Treaty. All that being said, it would be quite possible for Ukraine to obtain nukes if Trump seriously threatened to stop funding Ukraine’s war against Russia’s war of aggression.

Biden Administration would like to see additional funding for Ukraine in 2025 budget. It will increase funding in the meantime.

Tulsi Gabbard is being nominated for director of National Intelligence. NATO countries are likely to stop sharing intelligence with the US if she takes that position.

Ukraine will get 6^th German air defense system.

Candidates for German Chancellor differ on getting long-range Taurus missiles to Ukraine.

Pretty good score against Russian aerial attack, but some got through.

Molniya drones hitting in Kharkiv.

Some attacking Russians near Kupiansk violated laws of war by wearing Ukrainian uniforms.

Russian counter-offensive near Kursk doing poorly, suffering heavy losses. Ukraine takes out “1,950 personnel and 104 destroyed armored vehicles” in a single day.

Pion is Soviet-era self-propelled 203 mm cannon (18 kg of explosive) that Ukraine is using.

Explosion kills Russian officers.

https://balloon-juice.com/2024/11/13/war-for-ukraine-day-994-a-brief-wednesday-night-update/

Day 990 War in Ukraine

Press exploring a city that embodies resilience.

Zelenskyy spoke with Trump and was pleased, but an aide of Trump’s warned that Crimea is los to Ukraine forever. So the situation is as clear as mud.

Zelenskyy reports that Ukraine’s military factories are in good financial shape. He wonders why Europe has plenty of air defense systems sitting idle, while Ukraine could really use some of those.

Estonia, at least, is offering more air defense.

Biden Administration trying to get $7 billion worth of weapons out the door to Ukraine prior to the inauguration. They’re concerned that many of these weapons will still be en route when Trump takes office, but somehow many more weapons were supposed to have been delivered than were ever actually delivered.

Russia will be able to produce 30% more artillery shells than all EU member states combined next year

Another Ukrainian POW executed.

Would it actually help Ukraine to get restrictions on use of ATACMS lifted? Tatarigami’s Frontillegence has concluded that Russia has move strategic assets back from the front lines, but that many assets remain within range.

Ukrainians have recovered a downed, but intact, Russian Shahed drone with a thermobaric warhead.

Russian oil refineries in Saratov hit.

Schools in the Voronezh region of Russia received a prank demand that they make tinfoil hats to protect against NATO signals. Some complied.

https://balloon-juice.com/2024/11/09/war-for-ukraine-day-990-mixed-signals/

Day 988 War in Ukraine

 

Trump wants a quick, simple answer to war in Ukraine. Not gonna happen.

Kyiv was placed under a nine-hour drone assault. Now the Shahed drones are equipped with thermobaric warheads. Again, these drones are hitting civilians areas of the city.

Trump wants to delay Ukraine’s entry into NATO by 20 years. In return, Ukraine would continue to be armed. Not sure how the war gets solved “in 24 hours” then. Of course, that means freezing the current front lines, which is no solution at all. Neither side agrees with Trump’s idea of peace in 24 hours.

Tatarigami adds that Europe would have to do the heavy lifting of arming Ukraine AND to increase aid well beyond what it is. The US has great leverage over Russia, but must be willing to use it and it’s clear Trump won’t.

Russia opposed Trump’s plan for peace in Ukraine. Russia seeks “control over the government in UA, its military and defense industrial capabilities,” in other words, Ukraine’s surrender.

Good! “The U.S. will send Ukraine the full $6 billion” that’s in the pipeline before Inauguration Day.

There’s absolutely NO reason to presume that Trump has ANY desire to aid Ukraine.

A 12-story residential building in Kharkiv is bombed.

Two gas pipelines in Odesa blown up. Russians “targeting port infrastructure and damaging several civilian vessels.”

Russian two-star general killed.

Dagestan is used for Iran to get drones to Russia. Ukraine is hitting that area with drones.

https://balloon-juice.com/2024/11/07/war-for-ukraine-day-988-a-brief-thursday-night-update/

Day 983 War in Ukraine

 

Alexander Malkevich has been extremely active in Russian propaganda and was in Tblisi, the Capitol of Georgia. Looking as though Georgia will follow Belarus in becoming a Russian satellite.

Russia sends Shahed drone against Kyiv for six hours! Total number of Shaheds attacking Kyiv per day has averaged over 60 a day.

Russia stepping up its game against US election with 21 fake videos. Moldova also getting lots of election interference.

US says that if North Koreans engage in combat, they become legitimate military targets. Hard to see what the alternative would be. Is Russia weak because it employs North Korean troops or is it simply solving a problem? Russia is actually advancing in Ukraine.

The fellow running the Kyiv School of Economics feels the US has ben extremely weak in supporting Ukraine. Ukraine can’t strike North Korean troops even though they know where they are, but Israel has no restrictions. Russian aerial attacks on cities have drawn no response from US.

US could show leadership on admitting Ukraine into NATO.

Is the US perhaps waiting until after the election so as not to give Trump an issue? Or does the Biden Administration simply have hubris?

Apparently a poison gassing of Ukrainian troops in Brussels, Belgium. Blogger: "We have a term for these types of things: acts of war.”

Russian attack of 22 units (tanks, infantry fighting vehicles, 120 infantry) stopped

Russia loses another air defense system to Ukrainian heavy night bomber drone.

Russia attacks on 70km wide front. Ukrainian forces might end up being enveloped.

Now Kharkiv residents have to worry about underwater mines as well.

https://balloon-juice.com/2024/11/02/war-for-ukraine-day-983-shaheds-swarm-kyiv/

Day 982 War in Ukraine

North Korean troops are clearly intended for direct combat roles.

Russia launched 2,023 UAVs in October. Ukraine knocked down a really large chunk of them, but a lot got through. Probably about 170k foreign components. Sanctions aren’t nearly tight enough.

Zelenskyy comments on North Korean soldiers that aren’t far from Ukraine. He’s getting really annoyed at his inability to use long-range missiles.

Ukrainian Minister of Defense Umerov knows full well that Ukraine is only getting 10% of what the US has promised, but he has to keep up the pretense. Zelenskyy blames “bureaucracy and logistics.”

The US announced a new package today, which is good. Money for weapons for Ukraine is certainly being spent.

Poland constructing an 700km long Eastern wall, fortifications against Belarus/Russia.

It is possible that the Russian Armed Forces will achieve a local breakthrough in the Pokrovsk, Kurakhovo or Vuhledar areas this year.

South Korea is seriously considering aiding Ukraine. “But the prospect of directly supplying arms to Ukraine has been fiercely opposed by South Korea’s leftwing opposition, which holds a majority in parliament…”

Federal agencies ODNI, FBI and CISA release statement on Russian interference in US election.

Kharkiv is getting hit every day now.

https://balloon-juice.com/2024/11/01/war-for-ukraine-day-982-russia-double-tap-strikes-kharkiv-attacks-odesa-drone-strikes-sumy/

Day 979 war in Ukraine

Ramzan Kadyrov Spetsnaz university Ukrainian drone strike.

All out aerial assault on cities close to the front.

Zelenskyy answers the suggestion that Ukraine freeze its conflict with Russia. That would involve Russian troops remaining on Ukrainian soil.

With Zelenskyy’s “Victory Plan,” he might be seeking to blame the West if he ends up having to surrender territory and/or sign a temporary truce agreement. Zelenskyy wants a “non-nuclear deterrent” of Tomahawk missiles. They have a range 7 times that of ATACMS.

Illia Ponomarenko asks if Tomahawk missiles are unacceptable, then what is the alternative?

Talks between Ukraine and Russia on not striking each others energy facilities.

Russian military school bombed.

CSIS asserts that North Korean troops are poorly prepared for combat. “’The conclusion is clear — this war is becoming internationalised, extending beyond two countries,’ Zelenskyy said.”

US running low on air defense missiles. Israel’s need to defend against Iranian missiles is a drain on that resource. “The U.S. has not developed a defense industrial base intended for a large-scale war of attrition in both Europe and the Middle East, while meeting its own readiness standards.” As the blogger says: “We are now almost three years into Russia’s genocidal re-invasion of Ukraine and over a year into whatever it is we’re doing in the Middle East as a result of the Israel-Hamas war and no one has put the US defense industrial base on a war footing.”

https://balloon-juice.com/2024/10/29/war-for-ukraine-day-979-russia-drone-swarms-kyiv-kharkiv-krivyi-rih-kherson-more-ukrainian-civilian-targets/

 

Day 978 War in Ukraine

“The Derzhprom building or State Industry building in Kharkiv Completed in 1928, was one of the first skyscrapers in the Soviet Union and the largest construct made of reinforced concrete at the time.“

Zelenskyy: “This week alone, the occupiers have used over 1,100 guided aerial bombs, more than 560 strike drones, and approximately 20 missiles of various types against our country.”

Zelenskyy “participated in the 4th Ukraine-Nordic Summit where he gave remarks and then did a joint press conference. He also sat for an interview with the Times of India.”

North Korean troops in Ukraine is now 10k.

Croatia planning major tank/IFV transfer to Ukraine.

Georgian President (backed by the West) and Prime Minister (backed by Russia) take polar opposite positions on the recent election, with the President charging that te Prime Minister was cheating. Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán visits to try and mediate, gets booed by citizens.

Elon Musk is an incedibly dangerous security risk. His technology is NOT is safe hands!

Fiona Hill sees the US drifting into an oligarchy. Putin, Trump and Musk see themselves as part of a group of peers. They care deeply what fellow members of the group think of them. Starlink could use satellite relay stations in Russia and china, which means he needs the friendship of Putin and Xi.

One of the participants in Trump’s electoral plots. “And they have huddled in private, weekly meetings, methodically laying the groundwork that could be used to contest a Trump defeat.”

What we’ve been seeing is Trump, high net worth individuals and hostile foreign powers all working together to overthrow the state.

Up near Kursk, we’ve got Bradley IFVs and Abrams tanks working together.

Drones are not like artillery shells, they can hover, examine the target and then hit a very specific point.

A look at how Vovchansk has fared under Russian shelling.

Kharkiv, Kherson and Nikopol suffering attacks.

A sewage line has burst in Moscow, producing a very tall, smelly brown geyser.

https://balloon-juice.com/2024/10/28/war-for-ukraine-day-978-russia-strikes-at-a-kharkiv-landmark-unesco-heritage-site/

Day 976 war in Ukraine

Georgia is having an election now, ruling party sees it as a choice between war and peace, opposition party sees it as choice between pro-Europe or pro-Russia path. Lots of violence and irregularities reported. Voting is finished, but isn’t clear who won. Blogger think ruling party has “become increasingly unpopular and, in response, increasingly tyrannical.”

Quickie list of Ukrainian civilians killed overnight indicates 6 killed, including a child and a 16-year old, 28 injured, one child lost an arm.

Zelenskyy: Lack of Western decisiveness encourages aggression from Russia.

Mother greets son after he spent 30 months as Russian POW.

North Korean troops have been deployed near Kursk, where Ukraine invaded Russian territory.

Israel destroys Iranian ability to produce ballistic missiles, which helps Ukraine.

EU preparing for effect of Donal Trump winning US election. If he cuts off flow of US weapons to Ukraine, that could have a terrible effect.

From September 202 to September 2024, Russia has launched an average of 23 missiles a day. Ukraine has intercepted almost 80% of them. 52 distinct models of missiles.

Russians still advancing near Vuhledar.

Russian oil refinery set ablaze. It processes 17 million ton per year.

https://balloon-juice.com/2024/10/26/war-for-ukraine-day-976-odesa-under-attack/

 

Day 975 war in Ukraine

 

120-year old Ukrainian Christmas Carol sung at Carnegie Hall.

Russia attacks with missiles and drones.

Ukrainians are hard at work, preparing for the heating season.

Worst of both worlds. Ukraine refrains from certain actions, but Russia does not respond with reciprocal restraint.

North Korea supplying about 60% of artillery shells used in Ukraine.

“Black Insurrectionist” was actually a white guy, was spreading “unverified information from dubious sources” and was a crook.

Elon Musk had secret conversations with Vladimir Putin. By the way, Musk purchased Twitter with financial help from “the children of sanctioned Russian oligarchs.”

ATACMS can reach 300 km, Ukraine’s “home grown” missile can reach 500 km.

Another BUK-M3 air defense system taken out by a heavy drone at night.

North Korean troops reported to where Ukraine made an incursion near Kursk.

Putin justifies the war in Ukraine by saying that Russia was taking defensive action over NATO expanding up to Russia’s borders. He ignores that Ukraine is not some lifeless chess piece, but actively does not wish to be to be occupied by Russia.

https://balloon-juice.com/2024/10/25/war-for-ukraine-day-975-russia-has-been-bombarding-central-northern-ukraine-for-hours/

Day 958 War in Ukraine

Russian oil tanks ignited in Feodosia. This is the second day of those oil tanks burning!

Wow! US spokespeople engage in serious delusions as to how well Ukrainian air defense works.

Zelenskyy (words to the effect of) “C’mon guys! Don’t keep your anti-aircraft weapons locked away in warehouses! WE need them!” Lots of military equipment the US has, but won’t give to Ukraine.

Russia bombed a children’s hospital two months ago. Russians have interpreted the lack of consequences as permission to keep doing that.

Slovak sends “over €4 million, which allowed the purchase of 122 tons of ammunition.”

France will get Mirage 2000 fighter jets in the first quarter of 2025.

Hungary has blocked the European Union from getting €35 billion that was promised to Ukraine. Did Trump and Putin agree on that during one of Trump’s private phone calls to Putin? There were at least seven such phone calls since Trump left office.

Fascinating detail on how Saudi Crown Prince bin Salman communicates with various Americans. Our blogger explains the significance of the method.

Biden thought Obama never took Putin seriously.

Good! VP Harris would refuse to engage in peace talks with Russia without Ukraine present. She also looks down on Trump’s “peace” proposal concerning Ukraine. European allies will be delighted if Harris wins in November!

Rise in Russian executions of Ukrainian prisoners of war.

https://balloon-juice.com/2024/10/08/war-for-ukraine-day-958-a-lot-to-cover-tonight/

 

Day 952 War in Ukraine

Vuhledar is gone. It’s now just rubble and occupied by Russia. Ukrainian troops had to depart as Russian troops were threatening to encircle them.

Bombing in Kharkiv of a residential building. Shahed drone strikes against Kyiv, Khmelnyskyi, Vinnytsia, and Rivne Oblasts.

From Zelenskyy’s daily speech today: “’Shahed’ drones targeted ordinary civilian infrastructure – a ferry terminal, cargo trucks, a warehouse with grain. The very thing that Russian terrorists always perceive as a target is the food security of the region and the world.”

Zelenskyy wishes a “Shanah Tovah to Jewish communities across Ukraine and around the world as they mark #RoshHashanah.”

A counting-up of the summer’s civilian casualties (1 Jun to 31 Aug): “At least 589 Ukrainian civilians were killed and another 2,685 injured”

Very interesting and lengthy thread on how the US and Europe view Ukraine and Russia.

Russians have improved their battlefield performance: “Enemy troops are storming the battlefields in small teams that minimize detection and make return fire difficult, backed by superior quantities of artillery and drones.”

Film clip of a glide bomb hitting Vovchansk.

More on the drones of Kherson chasing down civilian residents of the city. “Drones are now flying in groups and attacking everything that moves.” and “Under attack are people walking, driving, bicycling, going to work or standing by grocery stores.”

Okhmatdyt suffered a massive missile attack several months ago.

Russian crop-duster hit by friendly fire that thought he was a Ukrainian drone.

https://balloon-juice.com/2024/10/02/war-for-ukraine-day-952-kharkiv-under-attack-once-more/