Day 1196 War in Ukraine

She’s referring to Mzia Amaglobeli - Georgia’s first female journalist political prisoner.

Special Envoy Kellogg is convinced that the US will apply new sanctions to Russia. Trump continues to claim that Russia would never have attacked Ukraine if he had been president in 2022, but “every time he says it, Russia attacks Ukraine.” Trump continues to express “delusional confidence.” Putin describes Ukrainian leaders as “terrorists.” and “Who negotiates with terrorists?”

Georgia cannot be a self-sustaining dictatorship. Outside id for them muse cease.

“Georgia’s fifth president, Salome Zurabishvili, is calling on the U.S. and EU to respond as Georgian Dream moves to censor a critical TV channel through new amendments to the broadcasting law”

“49% of Georgia's population tend to trust the European Union, 37% tend toward distrust, and 14% says they don't know. “

Georgia has 60 political prisoners.

Netherlands pledges “€400 million package for maritime security, including 100+ fast vessels and 50+ sea drones.”

“The UK is investing £350m ($473m) this year to increase the supply of drones to Ukraine”

Russia trying hard to sway Moldova so that Transnistria can be reinforced with more troops.

Russia only has two A-50s (Russian AWACS) left. Not clear whether they’re operational.

Ukraine hacked into Russian plane manufacturer. The manufacturer had nothing secret as a back-up.

Trump talks to his good buddy Putin and assures us that Putin will retaliate for the attack on the “docked airplanes.” He also threatens Iran.

Russia extensively bombing Kharkiv and Sumy.

“North Korean 170-mm self-propelled artillery system ‘Koksan’” has been spotted near Ukraine.

https://balloon-juice.com/2025/06/04/war-for-ukraine-day-1196-if-you-look-around-the-table-cant-tell-who-the-mark-is-youre-the-mark/

 

Day 1193 War in Ukraine

“Trump to Zelenskyy: ‘You don’t have the cards.’”

In a massive smuggling operation, drone parts are brought into Russia via wooden mobile cabins. The drones took off from the cabins and attacked four airbases, destroying irreplaceable aircraft. Russia loses over 40 aircraft, costing over $7 billion. 34% of their missile carriers are now disabled.

“...by spending months quietly emplacing containers of drones in delivery trucks and vans, will force the Russians to inspect every similar vehicle” That will cost lots and LOTS of $$$!!! Blogger considers the operation first rate.

Zelenskyy describes the operation in detail.

Georgians celebrate Ukraine’s mission against Russian airfields.

Elon Musk realizes drones are the future of warfare.

“New bomber production, like Tu-160, has been limited to just a few aircraft per decade.”

Ukraine prepared to deliver draft peace proposal.

29 years ago, Ukraine gave its last nuclear weapon to Russia. Kate from Kharkiv says: “No country in the future will follow Ukraine's steps.”

Ukraine has anti-Shahed interceptor drones.

Bridge collapses in Kursk region in the middle of a freight train crosses over. Another one in Bryansk region collapses as well.

https://balloon-juice.com/2025/06/01/war-for-ukraine-day-1193-centers-of-gravity/

 

Day 1185 War in Ukraine

Very good question. ARE we ready to pick up where Ukraine leaves off? Is Europe?

Serious questions about Putin’s rationality and ability to discern reality. He seems to think that Russia must prove its Great Power credentials just as Catherine the Great did back in the 1700s. Trump is also delusional in that he thought a prisoner swap was a “truce, ceasefire, armistice or anything else.”

Police in Georgia are preparing for their Independence Day celebration on May 26.

Georgian regime is getting more violent with opposition politicians.

Georgian opposition is engaging in “guerrilla social resistance”

The US Defence Intelligence Agency puts out an assessment that makes it clear that negotiating an end to the war in Ukraine is futile.

The Department of Defense Press Secretary presents this weird idea that there’s no reporting footage on the war in Ukraine. The Secretary has always been pro-Russian.

Looks like Kharkiv is the next big target for a Russian ground offensive.

Lots of stuff blowing up, on Ukraine’s side, civilian targets, on Russia’s side, military targets.

Russians aren’t concerned with Ukraine’s “Nazism” or with defending the Donbas. They’re annoyed because Ukraine rejects the "Russian vision of the future" and the "Russian world." Ukraine does NOT see the two countries as one. It see two separate countries and does not wish to bring them together. .

https://balloon-juice.com/2025/05/24/war-for-ukraine-day-1185-russia-continues-its-combo-drone-missile-attacks/

Day 1179 War in Ukraine

 

Russia launches 273 drones against Ukraine. Man mourns his wife, killed in that attack.

Soviets brutally suppressed Crimean Tatars in 1944. Wonder if that’s why Crimea chose to stay in Ukraine by a relatively thin margin?

Putin believes that he’s playing a very strong hand of cards. He thinks Trump is on his side and that the greater population of Russia will allow him to grind down Ukraine. Blogger feels as he did three+ years ago, give Ukraine what it needs to win! “Putin and Russia are either stopped in Ukraine and pushed back within Russia’s borders or he will threaten all of the former states of the Soviet Union and then the rest of Europe.”

Face-to-face diplomacy between Ukraine & Russia. “the talks proved to be more mirage than breakthrough”

“Day 172 of protests in Georgia—where police officers followed orders, dragged protesters into special minibuses, beat them brutally, and sent over 300 to the hospital.“

Georgia protesters remember homophobic attacks on this date in 2013. The ruling Georgia Dream Party is firmly n the side of the homophobes.

Romania votes decisively against Russia/Trump backed candidate.

Russia detains a Greek oil tanker that was following the agreed-upon route.

“Over 12,000 buildings in Kharkiv have suffered varying degrees of destruction as a result of attacks by russia”

Kharkiv schoolkids perform an elegant prom waltz.

Russian drones can now strike targets 30km deep.

https://balloon-juice.com/2025/05/18/war-for-ukraine-day-1179-putin-keeps-probing-for-mush/

Day 1170 War in Ukraine

Georgians celebrate Europe Day by blasting the EU anthem (“Ode To Joy,” part of Beethoven’s 9^th Symphony, 1823).

Putin’s ceasefire proposal was just that. A proposal. Fighting continued.

Leaders of France, Germany, Poland and the UK were able to meet in Kyiv safely.

Russia and China appear to be getting along fine.

Blogger relates Russia’s revisionist history of World War II. He explains the term pobiedobesie, which translates as victory mania or victory fervor, explains Russia’s fanatical celebration of World War II.

In addition to usual broadcast, Zelenskyy also addressed the Joint European Force’s (JEF) member state’s summit.

Hmm, Georgians claiming their ancient heritage? A fellow climbed the statue of Vakhtang Gorgasali, who founded Tbilisi in the 5^th Century. Georgia’s Independence Day is May 26^th. Expect an even bigger demonstration then!

Hungarian spy network uncovered in Ukraine. Seems Hungary was promised Zakarpattia Oblast (province) as a reward. Hungary’s official position is to obtain “peace” by tossing Ukraine to the Russian bear to be chewed up.

France attributes cyber attack to Russia.

Poland to give 100 Oncilla armored vehicles to Ukraine.

Unmanned drone carrier can take up to 3k kilograms (6,600 pounds) of various types of weapons.

European countries direct that €1 billion of money from Russia’s assets be used to pay Ukraine to buy weapons from Ukrainians.

A look at Kupyansk.

Ukraine continues to have small foothold in Russia’s Kursk province.

https://balloon-juice.com/2025/05/09/war-for-ukraine-day-1170-pobiedobesie/

 

Day 1167 War in Ukraine

A market where Russian consumers from Belgorod and Kursk came to shop is hit again, with much clothing and many toys destroyed.

Woo hoo! 205 more Ukrainian POWs brought home!

Georgians celebrate the passing of the MEGOBARI Act by marching to the US Embassy

“Friedrich Merz, who supports supplying Taurus missiles to Ukraine, has been elected Chancellor of Germany.”

Ukraine urged to accept US deportees. Ukraine has not done so.

Secretary of Defense Hegseth, in February, unilaterally and arbitrarily held back aid to Ukraine. After an Oval Office meeting at which a cut-off was not approved, aide to Hegseth urged him to cancel those shipments anyway. Blogger thinks the people behind this were “Koch natsec network and are genteel isolationists” and that likely caused them to be purged.

Ukrainians increasingly concerned about air defense as Russia increases pressure.

Three years into the war and the US is STILL not on a war footing!

Ukraine loses a fourth HIMARS launcher. Drone is guided by a miles-long optical cable.

Ukrainian has been compiling maps of Ukrainian drone assaults using Russian sources.Before, they were concentrate on Crimea, now Northwards.

“Tonight, Russia struck Zaporizhzhia with missiles. First responders are rescuing people from the rubble of their own homes” Kharkiv gets hit a number of times.

All four of Moscow’s main airports closed due to Ukrainian drone attack.

https://balloon-juice.com/2025/05/06/war-for-ukraine-day-1167-205-ukrainian-pows-were-returned-today/

 

Day 1164 War in Ukraine

 

This uncrewed vessel fired an air-to-air missile that took down a $50 million jet, but as the vessel was not a suicide craft (it survived instead of blowing up on contact with the target), I guess you’re better off comparing the hourly cost of flying the jet to that of sailing the vessel. Still, a hugely disproportionate cost! Hilarious: The jet had taken off “on a mission to search for and destroy naval drones.”

Putin wants a short truce to coincide with a “World War II commemorations on May 9.” Zelenskyy says he’s not playing Putin’s game. At least a 30-day ceasefire would be serious.

In Georgia, traffic goes around women who hold up a long banner.

Judges hold a conference at the High School of Justice. Picketers shout their defiance at them.

World Press Freedom Day was May 3^rd. Georgia had absolutely nothing to celebrate on that day.

“The Mtavari Channel, a critical TV station that has exposed the truth hidden by propaganda for 6 years, has gone off the air.”

Trump claims that the US “did more than any other Country (sic), by far, in producing” victory in World War II over Germany. Ehh, if the Western or Eastern Fronts had been fighting by themselves, it certainly would have taken MUCH longer and would have been MUCH more expensive! Nah, the world was far better off with both the Western Allies and the Soviet Union pressing Germany from both sides.

Many Ukrainian cities on fire from drone attacks and damaged by glide bombs.

“With the direct strike of a glide bomb, Russia destroyed the State Emergency Service building in Kupyansk.”

https://balloon-juice.com/2025/05/03/war-for-ukraine-day-1164-ukraine-establishes-a-another-first-in-the-annals-of-war/

Day 1159 War in Ukraine

“Kyiv has quietly begun preparing to go it alone in anticipation of a US pullout, by increasing domestic arms production and intensifying talks with European allies about future assistance.“

Sergei Lavrov speaks of “Denazification “ for Ukraine. What does that mean? Essentially, taking out anyone who disagrees with Russia. He also wants recognition for the territories seized by force from Ukraine. There have been elections in these areas, but they were not internationally recognized as having been free and fair.

“GYLA has filed a complaint with the European Court of Human Rights on behalf of Mzia Amaglobeli “ Amaglobeli then appeared in court, where she lost her appeal and must remain in custody.

“A father and a son have been shot dead in Gori. A frequent occurrence in a rapidly Russifying Georgia.”

Major power outage in Portugal, Spain and parts of France.

Russia’s position on negotiations is that Russia considers: “international recognition” of its annexation of five Ukrainian regions to be an ‘imperative’ for any deal.” This would include a great deal of territory that Russia has not managed to conquer.

Blogger thinks Ukraine might survive Trump & the US walking away. It would require an effort from all non-US members, but it might be a do-able.

Wall St. Journal: “Russia is preparing for a military conflict with NATO after the war in Ukraine ends“ Russia is building bases opposite Finland.

Russia shells an agricultural enterprise, killing dozens of cattle.

Russia has officially released footage showing North Korean soldiers in combat.

Bombing and destruction in Russia.

https://balloon-juice.com/2025/04/28/war-for-ukraine-day-1159-from-unconditionally-conditional-ceasefire-to-fake-ceasefire/

 

Day 1155 War n Ukraine

Russia is very energetically trying to kill as man Ukrainian civilians as possible. “Overnight, Russia launched a total of 214 targets. Seven Iskander ballistic missiles, 31 Х-101 cruise missiles, six Kalibr cruise missiles, 65 UAVs, and four Х-59/69 guided air missiles were shot down.”

Yep, gotta love the “Moscow’s not taking over the whole of Ukraine because Putin’s a nice guy” message. Blogger later examines this idea.

“Olena Zelenska emphasized that dialogue between Ukraine and the Republic of South Africa is mutually beneficial and enriching.”

Georgians strongly support Ukrainians.

On day 150 of protests Georgians will change their demand to the resignation of the government.

Nika Katsia railroaded into drug trafficking charge.

If visa liberalization is halted, the Fifth president of Georgia, Salome Zurabishvili, says that’s the fault of Georgian authorities.

United States is seriously short of munitions. We had many years of quick victories. The war in Ukraine showed that large stockpiles are still a good thing to have. But Washington’s ability to turn out munitions is seriously lacking. Biden’s NatSec team COULD have put the US on a war-time industrial footing. “they dithered and equivocated for three years”

Trump suggests rewarding aggression by validating what Russia conquered in Ukraine. This concerns allies around the world. Russia celebrates.

Russians used a North Korean KN-22 missile on Kyiv.

Russians lose almost entire battalion in ground offensive. No ground gained.

Rostov military airfield attacked.

https://balloon-juice.com/2025/04/24/war-for-ukraine-day-1155-if-a-paper-tiger-roars-in-the-forest-does-anyone-notice-part-ii/

 

Day 1154 War in Ukraine

US-arranged peace talk collapses.

Focused air assault on Kharkiv. Ukraine launches a very large drone counter-attack in response.

US didn’t show up for the US-arranged negotiations. Of course Ukraine isn’t going to surrender any territory. What made US negotiators think they would? Sigh! “U.S. leader chiding Zelenskiy for refusing to recognize Russia’s occupation of Crimea.” Again, Trump failed to sit down with his negotiators beforehand. Very sensibly, Ukraine says they will not allow” Russia to “regroup and return with greater violence.”

“Leavitt: ‘In order to make a good deal, both sides have to walk away a little unhappy.’” But what does Russia give up?

Trump blames Obama for letting Russia take Crimea. Commenter quoted to suggest there’s some truth to that.

Russia repeats its call for Ukraine to withdraw completely from the four provinces it has allegedly annexed.

In Georgia, Albi Korzaia is accused of insulting an investigator. Korzaia repeats that the investigator is a “Russian and a traitor.”

Georgian reporter is fined GEL 20,000 (approximately €6,400).

Russian government spokesman Dmitry Peskov says “Russia sees Ukraine’s potential NATO membership as a direct threat to its security.“ Of course, without NATO membership, Russia can attack again. Russia considers Zelenskyy an illegitimate leader, so any agreement he signs is open to challenge. Blogger feels that the leak of the Russian claim to be bribing Trump is part of a plan to make Trump look weak and compromised.

“complete evaporation of a fully loaded Russian Grad MLRS”

Video of drone going inside a Russian armored vehicle.

https://balloon-juice.com/2025/04/23/war-for-ukraine-day-1154-if-a-paper-tiger-roars-in-the-forest-does-anyone-notice/

 

Response to Colonel Jacques Baud

There's no need for Colonel Baud to be confused about Putin's goals. Statements that Putin made in 2007 are quite clear. He wishes to reconstruct the Soviet Union. That means that once Ukraine is firmly in his possession, the Baltic States are next. 

I agree that Trump is quite vague about what the goals of both Putin and Zelenskyy are. According to Trump, anyone who engages in combat is a "sucker" and a "loser." He can't possibly broker a peace deal because he has no idea what the two sides are fighting about.

Is Russia trying to protect the people of the Donbas? This strikes me as highly implausible.  Putin uses both the soldiers of Russia and those of the Donbas as expendable cannon fodder, much as Robert E. Lee used Confederate soldiers. There has also been little or no reconstruction of war-damaged territories. 

Are you at all familiar with the "human safari" in Kherson? Drones continually circle over that Ukrainian city, picking of anyone seen walking. Public buses are attacked. Overall, Russian actions towards civilians in Ukraine are flat-out genocidal.  

You're of course familiar with the strike on Sumy that killed 35 people ? There were no military targets in the city, but the carnage was so bad ***even*** Trump felt obliged to comment on it! 

Nah, the way to make peace in Ukraine is to drive Russia back to Ukraine's 1991 borders. Nothing less will result in peace there.

Day 1145 War in Ukraine

 

Three-year anniversary of the flagship of Russia’s Black Sea fleet sunk.

Trump (words to the effect of): Ukraine is to blame for Russian attacks on it. Also, even if the war has been going on for 3+ years, I’m gonna blame Biden and Zelenskyy for it.

“Trump has fully turned on Zelenskyy: "He's always looking to purchase missiles. Listen, when you start a war, you gotta…” This is wildly inaccurate. The fellow who started the war was Putin. Putin does not share the blame with anyone. He is 100% responsible for the war.

No, the missile attack on Sumy was NOT an error. Russians themselves have said so. Negotiations with Putin or Trump are a complete waste of time.

Zelenskyy, in a 60 Minutes interview, vows that they will never recognize that Russia lrgitimately holds any Ukrainian territory.

Zelenskyy: “34 days ago, Ukraine responded positively to the U.S. proposal for a full and unconditional ceasefire – an end to all such strikes like the ones on Sumy, Kryvyi Rih, Dnipro, Kupyansk and Beryslav, and along the entire front line.”

Day 138, crowds protesting in Georgia are bigger than ever! Today is Mother Tongue Day, anniversary of when Soviets tried to outlaw the Georgian language.

Police officer Archil Antadze indicates where his cheek was reddened by Mzia Amaglobeli slapping him.

Germany gives permission to use Taurus missiles on the Kerch Bridge (that connects Crimea to Russia).

Sumy hit again with drones. Citizens of Kharkiv (nearest big city) line up for hours to donate blood for Sumy.

Russia strikes a food warehouse in Kharkiv and passenger trains in Cherrnihiv.

Ukrainians are confident they can hold Zaporizhia.

https://balloon-juice.com/2025/04/14/war-for-ukraine-day-1145-russia-continues-to-escalate-its-genocidal-strikes-on-ukrainian-targets-while-trump-repeats-putins-misinformation-agitprop/

Day 1142 War in Ukraine

So “Special” Envoy to Ukraine LTG (ret) Kellogg wants one plan, Mideast envoy Steve Witkoff wants another. The difference is that Kellogg wants to limit Russia to permanently occupying the areas of Ukraine that it already occupies, Witkoff wants Russia to have all of the area going out to the dotted lines, that is, all of the four provinces that Russia has allegedly annexed. BTW, one of the primary purposes behind founding the UN in 1948 was to forbid all annexations.

Two Georgians, married to each other and fighting against Russia in Ukraine, have been sentenced in absentia, to lengthy prison terms.

UK sanctions Georgia some more.

Trump offers Ukraine the same wildly unfair minerals deal it had unsuccessfully offered before. Again, a “deal” that will go nowhere.

Tanker ship gets way to close to Estonia and claims it’s registered in Djibouti. Djibouti has no record of it.

Britain’s Price Harry stops by to visit wounded Ukrainian soldiers.

Zelenskyy visits Kryvyi Rih to examine bombing damage. “On April 4, a russian ballistic missile struck near houses and a playground, killing 19 people, 9 of whom were children.”

https://balloon-juice.com/2025/04/11/war-for-ukraine-day-1142-never-going-to-happen/

 

Day 1140 War in Ukraine

 

When a plane is landing is when it’s the most vulnerable. Ukrainian drone that cost about $1k intercepted a Russian Tu-22M3 that cost $100 million!

Zelenskyy is willing to make a minerals deal, but he’s not going to be rushed into deal that will just turn Ukraine into a colony.

Georgia: It’s been raining all day in Batumi, but protesters show up anyway.

Georgian protesters keep Russian oriented administration people from joining in celebration of April 9^th. Ambassadors of Sweden and Latvia were allowed in, though.

Poland and the US also paid their respects.

History of Russia’s aggression against Georgia.

Japan interested in joining NATO for the purpose of supporting Ukraine.

Shades of the SHIELD Helicarrier! Ukraine has an aircraft that carries FPV drones.

Ukraine also has a drone specifically for intercepting Shaheds.

China insists their soldiers aren’t fighting in Ukraine.

Ukraine also has a missile-armed drone helicopter.

“Russia’s new spring offensive against northeastern Ukraine ‘has actually already begun’”

“The 225th Separate Assault Regiment is successfully breaking through Russian ‘dragon's teeth’ in the Belgorod region “

Russian base attacked with drones.

Balloon Juice - War for Ukraine day 1,140: Another Early Morning Russian Bombardment of Kharkiv

Day 1136 War in Ukraine

 

Some competition for Elon Musk’s satellite internet provider. Germany has been providing Ukraine with the services of a high-speed satellite. It only serves 1k terminals now, but they’re working on getting its capacity up there.

Russia launches a combined missile and drone attack on Ukraine.

Mourning the children slaughtered on a playground yesterday.

Blogger predicts that the minerals deal Trump wants will go nowhere. It’ll be endlessly negotiated.

Georgians remember a hero who died after torture in 2008.

Journalist arrested after incident in which he was apparently slapped by the head of the Georgia Dream Party.

Information on the minerals deal between Ukraine and the US leaked. Zelenskyy is trying to find out who tattled. Trump has yet to add security guarantees, so Ukraine’s concern isn’t very great.

Ukraine not likely to reduce its army after the war.

Russia lies about missile attack on Kryvyi Rih, portraying it as a military target. In the path of the missile were children.

A Russian multi-million dollar air defense system destroyed.

It looked as though a Ukrainian unit was stuck in the Russian rear, but after heroic fighting, made it back to their own lines.

https://balloon-juice.com/2025/04/05/war-for-ukraine-day-1136-missiles-drone-swarms-in-the-small-hours/

Day 1133 War in Ukraine

Lviv Croissants in Kharkiv is open for business!

Russians still lunching drone attacks as though there was no peace agreement pausing the conflict. There was supposed to be a pause on striking “energy infrastructure,” but Russians struck an electric substation.

“Zelensky visited hospitals in Dnipro where wounded Ukrainian defenders are receiving treatment.”

“More reports from Georgia of detention and mistreatment of protestors.”

The leader of a Georgian opposition party was grated an 50k GEL bail. (over $18k).

Sanctions applied to specific Georgian leaders.

Trump accepts Russia’s word for it that a majority of people in occupied territories support the Russian occupation.

US Secretary of Defense to skip meeting of US allies of war in Ukraine.

Russia able to pose credible threat to Europe given a two year rest break. A five-year rest break and Russia could go to war against NATO minus the US.

Baltic sates are very vulnerable to attack if Russia feels it can “peel off” some of them from protectors.

"Russia’s strategic interests are in irreconcilable conflict with the West, and there are no possibilities for improvement in the current situation."

Russian ballet group falsely advertises itself as Ukrainian. They are VERY tied to Russia!

Kharkiv is being bombed for the fourth year now.

Russian bomber shot down. As it fell, it struck a power line, blacking out 210 houses.

https://balloon-juice.com/2025/04/02/war-for-ukraine-day-1133-russia-continues-its-relentless-attacks-despite-trumps-truce/