A Forever War?

 Ben Shapiro is puzzled by the assertion that the US is now engaged in a “Forever War” when the Iran War is only a few week old. The Iraq War that began in 2003 was supposed to have ended with fall of Baghdad, but by early 2005, it was clear that the guerrilla war that began a few months afterwards was going to be extremely hard to put down in fact it never was and the US pulled out at the end of 2011. The younger George Bush had a clear goal, for Iraq to be a peaceful colony. Trump's goals? Well, he announced that he wouldn't settle for anything less than “unconditional surrender,” which hardly encourages Iranians to surrender peacefully. We therefore have no idea when Trump will be satisfied that he's achieved his objectives.

Amazingly, Trump's people hadn't even accounted for Iran's determination to close the Strait of Hormuz, a very easily predictable move for Iran to have made. Iran is certainly under the impression that distracting the American people from the Epstein Files is a major Trump goal. I agree that for Trump to help out his good buddy Putin by cranking up the price of oil is a major motivator for Trump.

The end of the Iran War is by no means clear because the terms that Trump will settle for are by no means clear.

Why did Trump initiate the current war with Iran?

In the war with Iran, DNI Gabbard is conspicuous by her absence. As the Director of National Intelligence, she should be at the center of discussions!  Secretary of State Rubio indignantly insists that "Tulsi has done a fantastic job and is a respected member of the President’s national security team..." But although she was present in the Situation Room  

during the launch of “Operation Epic Fury,” she was not at Mar-a-Lago with the commander in chief.

The piece goes on to document Gabbard's opposition to a possible invasion of Iran to her absence and silence since the bombing of that country began. 

Press Secretary Leavitt answered questions during a press briefing. Note that at no point during that briefing did she mention DNI Gabbard specifically or anything our intelligence agencies more generally might have provided to the President so that Trump could have made an informed decision. Trump appears to have relied entirely on Envoy Witkoff, a real estate guy with no background in intelligence or military affairs or diplomacy.  

The blogger here spends the first several paragraphs of this piece detailing just how Witkoff and his partner Jared Kushner (Trump's son-in-law) reached the conclusion that Iran was close to deploying a nuclear bomb. 

Witkoff and Kushner did not bring technical experts from the U.S. to sit in on their talks in Geneva 

Of past regimes, Trump's leadership team most closely resembles that of Mussolini's government over Italy in the 30s and 40s. Unfortunately

After years in power, surrounded by toadies and yes-men, Mussolini began to believe his own rhetoric...

Which sadly, brings us to today. 

Update: And yes, 

A solid majority of Americans believe that Trump started the war with Iran in part to distract from the Epstein file scandal that he can't dig himself out of.

Day 1475 War in Ukraine

 A Bofors 40mm gun (developed in 1922) is highly useful against Shahed drones.

Envoy Witkoff believes we can take the Russians at their word. Witkoff has made a enormous amount of money by doing business with Russian oligarchs. Th Trump negotiators appear to have believed, erroneously, that an Iranian reactor was capable of producing a bomb. It wasn't. The Iranians wanted to continue using uranium that was 20% enriched in their reactor. It isn't clear that Witkoff and Kushner understood what he Iranians were doing or suggesting.

The Trump Administration (blogger calls them “Team Clown Shoes”) were warned by Ukrainians about Iranians possibly using drones in the Persian Gulf. Team Trump dismissed the idea. After an Iranian drone was seen above a US military base, the US then requested assistance. Oops!

Georgia's Prime Minister congratulates “Mojtaba Khamenei on his appointment as Iran’s Supreme Leader.”

Georgia's port of Kulevi removed from EU sanctions regime even though they appear to play a role in sanctions evasions. "Today, when they faced the actual possibility of sanctions, the Georgian Dream suddenly made a promise to no longer evade Russia sanctions”

“Hungary’s Transport Minister openly admits Hungary stole $80 million belonging to Ukraine and plans to use it as leverage to restore the Druzhba oil pipeline”

Europe is going to give Ukraine 35 Patriot missiles.

Germany opposed easing sanctions on Russian oil.

Trump mentions that they now have low-cost drone interceptors without mentioning WHAT COUNTRY they're from!

“The deportation and forcible transfer of Ukrainian children to Russia constitutes a crime against humanity and a war crime, the UN has said”

More Ukrainian apartment buildings bombed.

Putin says Donetsk is being rebuilt. Short film shows before and after pictures. No, Donetsk is still in very bad shape.

“Almost the entire territory of Dnipropetrovsk region has already been liberated from the Russians.”

Internet in Moscow has been disabled.

Lots of Russian stuff blowing up.

https://balloon-juice.com/2026/03/10/war-for-ukraine-day-1475-if-you-look-around-the-table-cant-tell-who-the-mark-is-youre-the-mark/

Day 1471 War in Ukraine

 Mother gets news that her son, who has been in Russian captivity for three years, is home!

Did the US dig old anti-aircraft systems out of storage to oppose Iran? Nah, not the way the US fights.

“Russia is providing Iran with targeting information to attack American forces in the Middle East ...” In the video where Trump is asked about this, he shows that he REALLY doesn't want to talk about that.

Secretary of Defense Hegseth hilariously tells us that Trump has relationships with other world leaders so that he's fully aware of what's going on. I agree with the blogger. That sounds like a fictional representation rather than the real person.

A Georgian researcher has written about Iran's influence on Georgia. “Calls to prosecute researchers over exposing Iran ties continues.”

Hungary is taking Ukrainian POWs hostage and cash and vehicles from Ukrainian banks. They display Ukrainian bank notes as though they were suspicious. All Ukrainian personnel were eventually returned.

Ukrainian Foreign Minister calls Hungarian actions that of a criminal gang.

Putin to try and rig Hungary's election so that Orban wins reelection.

EU is preparing financial package, Ukraine says it needs 2k missiles for air defense systems per year. EU will allocate 60 billion Euros per year for missile, drones and 155mm artillery shells.

Russia is building up forces on Lithuanian border. They could be ready to attack in six years.

US relieves India by permitting them to buy Russian oil. Somehow have the feeling that that was their FIRST idea, rather than a decision they reached after looking at all the alternatives.

EU is insisting that Ukraine unblock the Druzhba pipeline, a pipeline that finances Russia's war against Ukraine.

Lots of Russian stuff blowing up.

Damage to Odesa and Kharkiv and the Dnister Hydroelectric Power Plant.

Russia kidnaps 19 Ukrainians. Ukraine demands their return.

https://balloon-juice.com/2026/03/06/war-for-ukraine-day-1471-russia-russia-russia/

Day 1462 War in Ukraine

 “The company’s main activity is the production of chemical products used by the Russian military-industrial complex.”

One of Putin' s objectives in his war on Ukraine was to prevent their acquiring long-range weapons. Ukrainian home-produced Flamingo cruise missiles just hit a target 1k km from their front line.

OTD in 1921, the Soviet Union signed a peace treaty with Georgia and violated it in less than a year. European NATO members agree that Putin can veto having them in Ukraine to ensure peace. There's about a 100% chance he'll do so.

Joint Ukrainian-British defense plant began operating in Britain.

“Trump has no idea what Putin really wants.” It's not like Trump has any excuse as Putin's goals have been clear since the full-scale war started four years ago. According to the blogger, Trump “has no idea what the actual causes of the war are.”

Ukraine was prioritizing hitting oil refineries. Now that that's more or less under control, they're hitting industrial targets. Back during World War II, the US and Britain could simply unload tons of bombs on a target and rest assured it was destroyed. Flamingos have a much smaller warhead, so they need to be very precise in what they hit.

Denys “Redis” Prokopenko makes the rank of Brigadier General (usually, generals and admirals are at least 50 year old).

“Epicenter mall is on fire in Zaporizhzhia after russian attack “

More Russian anti-aircraft systems blown up.

One out of every 25 Russian men is a casualty of the war in Ukraine, either wounded enough to be out of the fight or dead.

https://balloon-juice.com/2026/02/25/war-for-ukraine-day-1462-year-5/

Trump's hyperbole problem

 

I came across this post on Xitter:

My response to the author's explanation:

Someone responded to me:

I presume that what the fellow is saying is true, so I looked around and grabbed some quotes:

As of early afternoon, "Mikey" has no response to what I pointed out. So why do people believe that Trump was going to deliver "instant" results? I think Trump has a hyperbole problem. He describes people as "The greatest ever" or "The most horrible loser ever," he never just tells us about a modest person who's in the middle. I very strongly suspect Trump never said anything on the campaign trail about his economic policies needing several moths or over a year to start working. I think if Trump has said something to the effect of "These policies will take a while" Mikey would have quoted him. I'm sure that someone in the Trump campaign did indeed say this, but clearly, the impression that Trump's economic policies would work instantaneously, like flicking on a light switch, was an impression that, intentionally or not, Trump enabled.   

Day 1451 War in Ukraine

 

A Russian Pantsir air defense system costs $15 to $20 million. Ukraine has now destroyed half of the 42 systems that Russia has.

Zelenskyy makes a lengthy speech observing the 4^th anniversary of the start of the full-scale war between Russia and Ukraine. He sounds pretty bitter. I don't blame him a bit. Ukraine has made tremendous sacrifices to keep the rest of Europe from having to fight Russia themselves.

Big turnout for Georgian protesters on Day 444 of their protest.

Secretary of State Rubio makes a racist speech, attributing Western success to factors that are uniquely Western, never mind that others are quite capable of matching our feats. Uuh...whut? “To appease a climate cult, we have imposed energy policies on ourselves that are impoverishing our people, even as our competitors exploit oil and coal and natural gas and anything else” Here Rubio just goes completely off of a cliff and into sheer delusion. Is Trump demanding “seriousness and reciprocity“ of is he just making crazy demands? Rubio doesn't like mass migration but doesn't seem to have any idea why it occurs. It's difficult to battle against something when you have no idea why it's happening. Yeah, defending colonialism as Rubio does is just...no.

“Rubio said the US still doesn't know if Russia is serious about ending the war in Ukraine.” That's completely insane. If you have no idea why the other guy does as he does, you have no hope of resolving the conflict.

European troops don't understand how drones have decisively affected the battlefield. Ukrainians fully comprehend that.

Lots of Russian stuff destroyed.

Russians compensating for lack of Starlink communications with balloons carrying communications equipment to 20km up.

https://balloon-juice.com/2026/02/14/war-for-ukraine-day-1451-president-zelenskyy-in-munich/

Day 1450 War in Ukraine

 “Ukrainian skiers honored fallen athletes after their race at the 2026 Olympics.”

“Trump: 'Zelenskyy is gonna have to get moving. Russia wants to make a deal.'” Sounds like Trump's been chatting with Putin again!

Kate from Kharkiv: “You [Trump] aren’t getting anywhere because you’re pressuring the victim instead of the aggressor—Russia.”

“Rubio skipped a meeting with European leaders on Ukraine” Without Rubio, the meeting was pointless.

Germany's view of diplomatic relations with Georgia.

Many countries pledge money for Ukraine to defend itself.

German Chancellor Merz says the war will end when Russia is exhausted militarily or economically.

NATO General Secretary Rutte doesn't understand what the US is doing.

The leader of the Hungarian opposition claims he was brought into a “honey trap,” where an adult (whew!) woman slept with him in a room that was surveilled. Parliamentary elections will be held in April. Magyar's party is in the lead.

Zelenskyy tours a Ukrainian-German drone factory.

Massive drone attack on Odesa. Apartment buildings and car dealership burned.

Ukraine rescues a prisoner who was behind enemy lines.

Lots and lots of Russian stuff destroyed!

https://balloon-juice.com/2026/02/13/war-for-ukraine-day-1450-looks-like-trump-had-another-phone-call-with-putin/

Day 1442 war in Ukraine

The blogger doesn't give Elon Musk an explicit “Attaboy,” but makes it clear that Musk's action in denying the use of the Starlink internet system to Russia has really messed up Russia's military effectiveness to Ukraine's advantage.

The medium-range ballistic Oreshnik missile had its launch site destroyed by Flamingo missiles.

Good news! Another POW exchange!

Georgia protesters had their bank accounts frozen because of unpaid fines that they were never notified of.

Commenter Georgian Marika Mikiashvili is a guest on a podcast.

Estonia takes the courageous step of emptying out its supply of generators in order to help Ukraine. They then ordered replacements from their industries.

China is financially supplying Russia in its war against Ukraine.

Very interesting Trump gives Victor Orban an enthusiastic endorsement for reelection. Fellow dictators and wannabe dictators sticking together? Also, Trump refers to new American battleships. These exist only in his fantasies.

Russian propagandist Solovyev is very upset that Starlink is no longer to be used by Russians.

Marat from Kazakhstan offers free hot meals to Ukrainians. Hey, I'd take them too! A hot meal is a hot meal!

Cold weather dance party in Odesa!

Railway cars meant to provide warmth and shelter to Ukrainian civilians hit.

Russia hurting badly from sanctions. Whole economy may collapse in a few months. Russian banks have 10 trillion rubles in loans that might not get repaid.

Russian propaganda stations in Moscow have to be evacuated due to a fire.

https://balloon-juice.com/2026/02/05/war-for-ukraine-day-1442-cry-havoc-release-the-flamingo-of-war/

Destruction of exhibits at the President's House.

Just because I spent so much time at Philadelphia's primary court-house today, here's my quickies, once-over-lightly summary of the arguments over the Trump Administration's taking away of the explanatory panels at the site of George Washington's house right next to the Liberty Bell exhibit.

Government: We were authorized to do that. We had every right to do it. Eff the people. Eff having a proper historical explanation for those days. We've got our own interpretation that we're gonna stuff down your throats!  

Philadelphia: We put a lot of time, work and effort into deeply and carefully researching just how Washington, his household and his slaves all worked and interacted together. We spent a great deal of time on the words and pictures for the exhibits. Had Trump's people come and said “Let's have a discussion about your exhibit,” we would have said “Fine,” and we would have carefully gone over all of the evidence with them. They just came and ripped it all down and who knows WHAT sort of racist dog poop they'll put up to replace it?

     

 

Day 1433 War in Ukraine

Advanced batteries mean drones can either fly twice as far or carry twice as much.

Auschwitz was liberated 81 years ago on January 27^th. It's important to remember that Auschwitz did not happen immediately upon der Fuhrer taking power in Germany. The hatred slowly and gradually built up.

Vice-President gives a Holocaust remembrance speech that neither mentions Jews nor condemns Nazis.

Anne Frank and her family were NOT legal immigrants to Holland. They were disobeying a summons to report to a labor camp.

Georgia abuses prisoners of conscience so much, they fear for their lives.

France calls on Georgia to loosen up and hold free and fair elections.

14 countries now reject Russia's shadow fleet tankers.

Trump Administration denies that they're trying to force Ukraine to make territorial concessions.

That IS good news! It was predicted in 2023 that the war in Ukraine would lead to battlefield nukes being launched “within six months.”

Trump thinks things in Ukraine are great. No one knows what he's talking about.

“Elina Svitolina crushes the world No. 3 and reaches the Australian Open semifinals for the first time!“

291 Ukrainians were on a train that was hit with three drones. Russians also struck a school that “serves children with special educational needs.” And they sent 50 drones to Odesa. They hit a church and a kindergarten.

Russians hit pipeline that was serving oil to Hungary and Slovakia.

Russian mortgage debt ha tripled from December 2022 to December 2025, from 91.6B to 265.6B rubles.

https://balloon-juice.com/2026/01/27/war-for-ukraine-day-1433-international-holocaust-remembrance-day/

 

Day 1429 War in Uraine

Taking shelter in a Metro station. I'm guessing just about every household has a package of things to survive on in the subway that they can just grab immediately.

Blogger examines Trump's strategy, finding that Trump is a very impulsive person who doesn't think anything through beforehand. .

Russian court admits that Ukraine sunk the Moskva with many casualties. They try charging Ukraine $29 million for it.

Georgia profits by helping Russia, Iran and China avoid sanctions. They're now isolated as a result. Georgia isn't busting all protesters, they're selective about it. But those who get busted are “standing on the sidewalk.”

Details on how Georgia keeps Russia's shadow fleet of oil tankers running.

Russia and Azerbaijan are running propaganda networks together, Russia to oppose the West, Azerbaijan to fight Armenia.

Denmark's plans to defend Greenland against a US invasion are apparently on hold for now. Forces will stand by anyway.

Canada considers the US to be more of a threat than Russia and China.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent eggs on Alberta to secede from Canada. Blogger assess potential National Security plan. Other commenters have observations. It's pretty much just a copy of past NDS's.

Large-scale aerial attack begins.

Putin's goals have not changed since the beginning of the full-scale war.

“Russian export income is collapsing dramatically“ Sales are also dropping.

Blackout in Murmansk, Russia.

https://balloon-juice.com/2026/01/23/war-for-ukraine-day-1429-russian-war-ship-go-fuck-yourself/

Day 1427 War in Ukaine

Resident of Kharkiv dances on the frozen river.

Trump forgets that the US called for assistance after 9-11 and ALL of our NATO allies showed up! He also confuses Iceland with Greenland, repeatedly! Europeans call him “Daddy?!?!” The man is seriously delusional! Trump claims he won't use military force in Greenland. He said the same thing about Venezuela! Blogger: “Once again there’s no deal. There’s not a concept of a deal.”

Mark Carney, Prime Minister of Canada, remarks that the old order is dead and everyone had better get used to that.

Georgians and Iranians protest together.

Georgia is backsliding on liberties. That's costing them.

On this date in 1932, the Soviet Union signed a nonaggression pact with Finland. Seven years later, they invaded.

Canada makes military plans to resist US invasion. Recall, please, that Trump referred to them as our “51^st state.” They do not intend brigade to brigade tank battles, They plan to instead copy what Afghan rebels did with “ambushes, sabotage, drone warfare or hit-and-run tactics.”

Envoy Witkoff fails to note that destroying power plants in wintertime is a war crime because civilians freeze without power to their homes.

Trump criticizes both Putin and Zelenskyy for failing to make a deal. Oh yeah. THAT'S really going to encourage them to make peace!

Super-duper smart Russian soldier takes shelter in a building filled with red barrels. Great big explosion!

“Ukrainian railway emergency repair teams from across the country” gather In Kyiv to get power back to frozen homes.

Hoo wee! “Russia's National Wealth Fund sold over 70% of its gold to fund the war since 2022, and it's still dropping.”
Putin makes snarky comment about the sale of Alaska vs Greenland.

https://balloon-juice.com/2026/01/21/war-for-ukraine-day-1427-carney-gives-a-stemwinder-while-trump-takes-a-dump/

 

Day 1423 War in Ukraine

Another way to deal with -15C temperatures, dance party!

We’ve seen recently that Ukraine has been hitting civilian power plants and other sources for heating. This is justified with the “Just War” theory, a theory that holds that you can strike in the way that your opponent does in order to get him to stop doing that.

Blogger describes Trump’s usual approach to peace negotiations in Ukraine and it’s one that just keeps repeating because he doesn’t wan to punish his good buddy Putin.

Georgian propagandists come up with a combination story involving Georgian protesters, Iranians and the German ambassador.

Italian authorities seize ship containing iron briquettes that they suspect was headed for Russia.

Greenlanders make their feelings about Trump’s plans to acquire Greenland known. They take to the streets to protest.

EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen takes Greenlands side.

A united West may very well be dead.

A visit to a place where Ukrainian children can express themselves in art.

Ukrainian energy workers are working 24/7 to restore electricity.

Dangerously, Russia plans to hit components of nuclear plants.

More radars in occupied Crimea taken out.

As temperatures hit -29C in Moscow, Ukraine destroys heating equipment for civilians.

https://balloon-juice.com/2026/01/17/war-for-ukraine-day-1423-only-efficient-effective-reciprocity-will-be-effective/

 

Day 1414 War in Ukraine

 

Georgian policeman photographs people in crowd so they can be busted later.

Kate from Kharkiv is watching what's happening in the US with the murder of Renee Good and it reminds her of bad times in Ukraine's history.

Darth Putin understands force and how it's used. Others should take heed.

Should the US have reacted to the Russian attack on Georgia in 2008? Absolutely. Could it have? Ehh, the younger George Bush had pretty much used up all of his credibility by then. People were highly suspicious of him getting the US into yet ANOTHER war!

The government of Iran has nationalized Russia's oil extraction operations.

Lithuania is prepared to send troops to maintain the peace after peace in Ukraine has been reached.

One of the problems with being a dictator is that people only want to bring you good news! This can lead to errors.

Britain delivers large group of anti-aircraft systems.

Maxim machine guns take down a Shahed drone.

Russia's using Starlink systems on horseback.

Great damage being done to Ukrainian civilians.

Russian oil sales doing VERY poorly! They're selling below cost and people STILL avoid buying it!

https://balloon-juice.com/2026/01/08/war-for-ukraine-day-1414-a-brief-thursday-night-update/

Day 1412 War in Ukraine

I can sort of, kind of understand from the bully's point of view, that people who are foolish deserve some sort of punishment, but yeesh! Gazeta Wyborcza wasn't just smacked around a bit, he was tortured to death!

Diplomatically, allies of Ukraine were concerned with security protocols for making sure the war doesn't just re-start after Russia is rested up.

France and Britain have agreed to send troops after agreement is signed. If there's no “tripwire” force in place, the Budapest Memorandum shows the dangers of just words.

Tatarigami recommends that Europe move troops to Greenland to deter Trump pulling off another Venezuela. Avoiding confrontation and war didn't work very well after the Russians invaded Crimea. In that case “peace” only lasted eight years.

Russian hybrid warfare is increasing against Finland.

In a district in Berlin, a power facility was set on fire. Repairs will take a while longer. Ukraine set up a “'Point of Resilience' in Berlin, a place where people can warm up, charge their devices, and have hot tea “

Very lengthy piece makes a good point, that Europe probably shouldn't just take Ukrainian drone tactics wholesale. Drones aren't quite the game-changer that tanks were as they can't take and hold territory, but we'll see.

Without technology imported from the West, Russian Arctic ports are getting hard to maintain.

https://balloon-juice.com/2026/01/06/war-for-ukraine-day-1412-the-coalition-of-the-willing-plus-jared/

 

Day 1411 War in Ukraine

Undersea cable in the Baltic Sea form a fairly extensive network. It's really hard to defend all of that from ships dragging their anchors.

Heh! The whole Moscow region is under a “no-fly” regime installed by Ukraine.

Very interesting to see the Russian reaction to Trump's invasion of Venezuela. Their idea is “Hey, let's reintroduce the old 19^th century idea of 'spheres of influence' where the US can do as it pleases in Latin America while Russia does what it pleases in the area that the old Soviet Union used to occupy!”

“Vatnik” is an Eastern Europe term meaning “supporter of Russian imperialism” usually against democratically-minded citizens of Eastern Europe and NATO. The difference between vatniks and MAGA? Ehh, not much. The blogger estimates the invasion of Greenland will come shortly before the US midterm election.

Polish leaders conclude that a defeat of Russia is the only route to peace.

Latest Ukrainian drone uses 97% Ukrainian parts.

Ukraine didn't fall the way Venezuela did because the Commander in Chief of the Army had a few hours of advance notice. Russia met a fully alerted and prepared force.

The story of how Kyrylo Budanov ended up where he is today.

Ukrainian F-16 pilots had to adapt their tactics to meet local conditions by flying much lower than Americans had trained them to. The estimated value of targets hit is about $20 billion.

Russia uses ballistic missiles on infrastructure.

Russians attack an American-owned sunflower oil plant. Kate from Kharkiv: “American businesses are security guarantee, they said.”

https://balloon-juice.com/2026/01/05/war-for-ukraine-day-1411-ukraine-has-finally-denied-flight-to-the-russians-over-moscow/

 

Protest against War with Venezuela!

 260103

Rally opposed to war in Venezuela.

The invasion began Saturday night (January 2nd). By all appearances, the "kinetic phase" is now over. That is the actual firings of guns and the movements of troops.

How long will the occupation phase last? Ehh, good question. There are a few conflicting reports on that.

 

RLGardner.net